Angela Merkel accepts soft refugee cap

CSU leader Horst Seehofer with CDU leader and German Chancellor Angela Merkel at a meeting between the two parties in September | Steffi Loos/AFP via Getty Images

Angela Merkel accepts soft refugee cap, resists ‘Obergrenze’

Deal opens door to start talks to form a coalition government, but will be hard to swallow for Bavarian right and Greens.

By Matthew Karnitschnig

10/8/17, 11:30 PM CET

Updated 10/9/17, 10:18 AM CET

BERLIN — Angela Merkel agreed to try to limit the number of refugees coming to Germany every year, but stopped short of endorsing the hard cap demanded by her party’s Bavarian allies.

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Under the deal hashed out during a marathon session at the headquarters of Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) on Sunday night, Germany would seek to limit the number of new arrivals to 200,000, including individual refugees and family members who follow them. Skilled workers seeking employment in Germany would not be included in the calculation.

If it holds, the compromise should clear the way for Merkel to begin exploratory talks with the Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens to form a new government, the only viable coalition option after last month’s election. Yet Sunday’s pact could prove a stumbling block in those negotiations as well, especially with the Greens who have resisted such limits.
On Monday, Green party co-leader Simone Peter said the agreement is “far” from what the party expected to be discussed in upcoming coalition talks.

Bavarian skeptics

Whether the agreement, which was still being finalized late Sunday, will end the dispute between Merkel’s Christian Democrats and the Christian Social Union (CSU), its Bavarian sister, is also far from certain.
Ultimately, the two parties agreed to what amounts to little more than a symbolic refugee cap.
Officials close to the talks stressed that even if the 200,000 figure is reached, no refugee would be turned away at Germany’s border. What’s more, the target number could be raised in the event of a humanitarian crisis, like the one in 2015.
CSU leader Horst Seehofer has been calling for a refugee cap, known as an Obergrenze in German, ever since the 2015 refugee crisis. Merkel has steadfastly refused, on the grounds that a cap isn’t consistent with Germany’s values.

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The issue led to deep split between the two conservative allies, collectively known as the Union. Seehofer backed away from his insistence on the Obergrenze earlier this year after Merkel agreed to tighten asylum rules and accelerate deportations.
But last month’s election outcome, which saw a sharp fall in support for the Union, put the issue back on the front burner. Seehofer, who faces a Bavarian state election next year, blames Merkel’s refugee policies for the drop in support. Many in the CSU worry the party could even lose its absolute majority in Bavaria, its power center, where it has governed alone for much of the post-war period.
Those concerns have left Seehofer exposed and he’s likely to face a leadership challenge at a special party congress next month.
To survive, he’ll have to convince his conservative base that Sunday’s deal is more than a fig leaf.
That won’t be easy. Though Seehofer won the 200,000 figure he was after, Merkel refused to give him what he really wanted the pact to include – a reference to an Obergrenze.
This story was updated Monday morning.

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